Wednesday, November 25, 2009

A First Peek at Google's Chrome OS

Last Thursday, Google Inc. introduced Chrome OS aka Chromium OS, to the public with quite considerable fanfare. The news enjoyed universal coverage in the media. Chromium OS is an operating system that the company is developing on its own as an open source effort. Sources and build directions are now easily accessible.

I gave it try. In short, Chromium OS consists of a Debian-derived operating system using a Linux 2.6 kernel and Google's Chrome browser. It is meant to run on personal computers with the i386 architecture with either 32- or 64-bit processors. With the packages Google includes, the compressed install image is roughly 800 megabytes in size and takes up 2.8 gigabytes of disk space expanded.

The distribution is open to customization. Adding applications is possible. Only, the packages have to comply with the Debian distribution format.

Obviously, Chrome OS is meant to run bare-bones on very thin clients. Non-essential applications and data are intended to be stored elsewhere in the cloud. The small footprint and, hopefully, the ensuing speed may harbor this operating system's greatest strengths, potentially turning Chrome OS into a powerful, cost-efficient tool for corporate users.

In view of the current governmental push for patient record digitization, the health care sector appears particularly suited. I regularly visit a large academic outpatient clinic. Every examination room is equipped with a conventional stand-alone personal computer connected to an intranet. Across the entire hospital campus, these computers must number in the thousands. In such environment, thin clients appear superbly suited to drastically diminish cost for hardware, software and IT maintenance. Here, Chrome OS may provide a rich resource.

The build instructions for Chrome OS on the Chromium project site are straight forward. I compiled the system with Ubuntu's Karmic Koala (9.10) hosted on a work station with two 64-bit AMD Opteron 246 processors. The hardware is described in detail in my post dated May 22, 2008. I opted not to compile the Chrome browser myself. Instead, I downloaded the pre-built package available from Google and copied it to the build directory as directed in the Chromium project documentation. Do not omit to provide a user name and a shared user password. They may be essential for log in and system administration later.

The build process unfolded uneventful. However, complications arose, when I had to decide how to actually run the Chrome OS.

Google provides two options to ready the successful build for installation. One method uses a bootable USB 1-gigabyte flash memory drive, from which the system can be installed on a dedicated computer. For this procedure to work, USB devices have to be enabled in the boot list of the bios first.

The other installation option bundles the build in a VMware image named ide.vmdk.

Since I did not wish to dedicate a computer to testing Chrome OS quite yet, I chose this option. Eventually, I managed to install the image on a virtual personal computer emulated with qemu-kvm (version 0.11.0). Unfortunately, the emulation slows operations down considerably. Regardless, the procedure worked sufficiently fast for preliminary exploration.

I used qemu with the following options on the command line to start the emulator:
  • qemu-system-x86_64 -localtime -m 256 -vga std ide.vmdk

The screenshots below illustrate the sequence of steps I encountered starting up Chrome OS.

After a successful boot, the system introduces itself with a login screen.
I used my preset shared user password to log in. After we are signed in successfully, the Chrome browser launches. automatically.
We may browse the web or start our web applications.
Not too bad at this point!

Alas, I was not able to bring Chrome OS up to speed with qemu. I found a satisfactory solution in virtualbox. This emulator, however, does not accept the format of ide.vmdk. It has to be converted to vdi. The conversion takes two steps: We have to convert the Chrome OS vmdk image to a raw image with the suffix .bin with two commands in the directory where the image resides:
  1. We have toconvert the Chrome OS vmdk image to a raw image with the suffix .bin using qemu-img convert  ide.vmdk chrome_os.bin
  2. Then, we convert the raw image into a vdi image using a virtualbox tool with the command VBoxManage convertdd chrome_os.bin chrome_os.vdi

If we have not installed virtualbox yet, we shall be instructed to do so using sudo apt-get while trying to execute the second command.

After opening the virtualbox graphic user interface with the command virtualbox, we attach the vdi image as a hard drive from the menu by clicking Add in the Hard Disks tab under File > Virtual Media Manager. We locate and select the chrome_os.vdi image and click Open. Once the image has been added to the list, we click OK, and continue to create the remaining virtual machine profile. I reserved 256 megabytes as Base Memory. The operating system is Linux. The version is 2.6. The rest is set by default or optional. Now, Chrome OS is ready for boot.

Virtualbox is also available for Apple Macintosh computers with the intel architecture. Following the same steps as above, I successfully installed Chrome OS using the vdi image in virtualbox on a Mac Mini running OS X 10.5 (Leopard).

The emulator runs Chrome OS on both computers surprisingly fast.

Addendum
  • According to Stephen Shankland' s post with the title "Google shows off Chrome OS tablet ideas" on CNET.com dated Dec. 29, 2009, that I found on CNN.com today, the ideal thin client running Chromium could be a tablet (02/07/10).
Related Posts

Related Links

Monday, November 23, 2009

Chinese Drywall: kleiner Hinweis!

Auf Grund des rasanten Immobilienpreisverfalls in den amerikanischen Golfanrainerstaaten und des zur Zeit niedrigen Dollarkurses bereisen wachsende Zahlen deutscher Interessenten Florida auf der Suche nach günstigen Ferienbehausungen.

Sollten Sie den Ankauf einer Immobilie in Florida ernsthaft in Erwägung ziehen, achten Sie darauf, daß bei Reparaturarbeiten keine Rigipsplatten aus China verwendet worden sind.

Die tropischen Stürme der letzten Jahre haben an vielen Gebäuden an der Golfküste beträchtliche Wasserschäden hinterlassen. Der enorme Bedarf an Baumaterial hatte die Liefermöglichkeiten heimischer Hersteller schnell erschöpft. Importeure, zum Teil aus Deutschland, sprangen mit Billigware ein. Vielfach wurden zur Wandinnenverkleidung Kartongipsplatten aus China eingebaut.

Es stellte sich schnell heraus, daß diese Rigipsplatten stark korrosive Stoffe (vor allem Schwefelwasserstoff und Formaldehyd) in hoher Konzentration enthalten. Dies führte in kurzer Zeit zu erheblichen Schäden an elektrischer und sanitärer Installation. Darüber hinaus klagen einige Bewohner über chronische Gesundheitsbeschwerden.

Die Rigipsplatten müssen in diesen Häusern letztendlich ausgetauscht werden. Die geschädigte Infrastruktur, inklusive Heizung und Klimaanlage, muß ersetzt werden. Die Umbauarbeiten sind mit erheblichen Kosten verbunden, die keine Versicherung erstattet.

Bestehen Sie deshalb vor dem Kauf ihres Ferientraumes im Sonnenscheinstaat auf eine rechtsgültiges Gutachten, daß bei Instandsetzungsarbeiten keine chinesischen Rigipsplatten verwendet worden sind. Falls dies der Fall gewesen sein sollte, müssen die Schäden adequat behoben sein. Gutachten und Schadstofftests sind vor Ort erhältlich. Immobilien ohne Zertifikat sind weder versicherbar, noch weiterverkäuflich!

Anhang
  • Immobilienversicherungen sind in Florida recht teuer, insbesondere an der Küste. Flut- und Wasserschäden sind in Minimalversicherungspolicen nicht inbegriffen. Die staatliche Zusatzversicherung deckt Windschäden ab. Es ist darauf wertzulegen, sich neben Feuerschäden auch gegen Flut- und Wasserschäden abzusichern. Schäden durch starken Regen und Flutwasser treten in Florida häufig auf. Mit ihnen muß gerade bei tropischen Stürmen gerechnet werden. Je nach Lage und Wert der Immobilie kann eine Versicherungsprämie $15.000. im Jahr überschreiten.
  • Bob Van Voris and Allen Johnson Jr. berichteten letzte Woche in ihrem Bloomberg News Artikel mit dem Titel "Judge Awards $2.6 Million in Chinese Drywall Suit", daß ein Bundesrichter in New Orleans im ersten Urteil über eine Klage von geschädigten Hausbesitzern gegen den Hersteller chinesischer Kartongipsplatten im Sinne der Kläger entschieden hat. Das Urteil wird einer Vielzahl ähnlicher Klagen als Vorbild dienen (13.4.10).
  • Zu Folge des heutigen Berichts von Robbie Whelan and Dawn Wotapka im Wall Street Journal mit der Überschrift "Wallboard Exporter in Settlement With Beazer Over Costly Repairs" ist einer der größten Vertreiber chinesischer Kartongipsplatten in den USA, Knauf Plasterboard Tianjin Co mit Sitz in Deutschland unter dem Namen Knauf Gips KG, bemüht, durch zügigen Vergleich teure Gerichtsprozesse mit geschädigten Baufirmen zu vermeiden (16.5.10).
  • National Public Radio berichtete heute in seinen Nachrichten unter dem Titel "Jury Awards $2.4M In First Chinese Drywall Trial", daß ein Jurygericht in Florida einem Ehepaar, dessen Neubau durch chinesische Gipsplatten ruiniert wurde, Schadenersatz in der Höhe von  2,4 Millionen Dollar zugesprochen hat. Der Betrag ist zu 55 Prozent vom Vertreiber der Platten, Banner Supply Co., zu bestreiten. Der Rest soll vom Hersteller Knauf Plasterboard Tianjian getragen werden (19.9.10).
  • M.P. McQueen berichtet in seinem Betrag mit der Überschrift "Chinese Drywall Settlement Reached" im Wall Street Journal, dass sich heute im chinesischen Kartongipsplatten Prozess in New Orleans die klagenden Eigentümer von 300 Häusern in vier Staaten mit dem Plattenhersteller Knauf Plasterboard Tianjin (KPT) auf einen Vergleich geeinigt haben. KPT, die Zulieferer und deren Versicherungen erklären sich bereit, die Kosten für den Austausch der Platten und alle notwendigen Hausreparaturen zu tragen, Klimaanlage ausgeschlossen. Die Beklagten gestehen dabei nicht ein, dass die von den Klägern aufgeführten Schäden auf die fehlerhaften Platten zurückzufüheren sind. Die Reparaturarbeiten sind von den Beklagten bewilligten Bauunternehmen durchzuführen. Kosten für Ersatzwohnungen während der Reparaturarbeiten und die damit verbundenen Umzüge werden ebenfalls bestritten. Es ist anzunehmen, dass dieser Vergleich noch ausstehenden Klagen zur Vorlage dienen wird. Klagen gegen das deutsche Unternehmen Knauf Gips KG sind noch nicht entschieden. Die Firma steht auf dem Standpunkt, mit KPT nur eine lose Partnerschaft ohne jegliche Kontrolle zu unterhalten und daher nicht für das Geschäftsgebaren von KPT verantwortlich zu sein (14.10.10).
  • Zu Folge Dawn Wotapkas Artikel mit der Überschrift "Homeowners to Be Repaid in Drywall Settlement", der heute im Wall Street Journal erschien, könnte es in der 'class-action' Schadenersatzklage gegen KPT und anderen chinesischen Kartongipsplattenherstellern im frühen nächsten Jahr zu einer endgültigen Einigung kommen (15.12.2011).
  • Knauf ist nicht der einzige chinesische Hersteller, der schadhafte Kartongipsplatten in die USA lieferte. Wie Andrew Martin in seinem Artikel in der New York Times mit der Überschrift "Turning Point for Suite Over Chinese Drywall" vom 13.10.2012 berichtet, haben U.S. Bundes- und Landesgerichte in den letzten Monaten Taishan Gipsum für die Auslieferung schadhaften Produktes vornehmlich in den Südoststaaten verantwortlich befunden. Diese Entscheidungen eröffenen zwischen 7000 und 10000 betroffenen Hausbesitzern den Weg zur Schadensersatzklage. Der Hersteller ist in Berufung gegangen (15.11.2012).

Lesestoff zum Thema:

Friday, September 25, 2009

Netgear WG311v2 Wireless Adapter & 64-bit Operating Systems

I was trying to make a Netgear WG311v2 wireless PCI adapter connect to our Apple MB763LL/A AirPort Extreme Dual-band Base Station router using WPA password protection. I am running Ubuntu 9.04 (Jaunty Jackalope) on a machine with two AMD Opteron 64-bit CPUs. Note the card works out of the box with the driver provided by ubuntu on unprotected networks as well as on networks with WEP password protection, but not with WPA password protection.

I spent a whole week on the idea of adding WPA capability with the result that VERSION 2 of the adapter JUST WILL NOT work with this option on machines with 64-bit processors, because nobody compiled drivers for the 64-bit architecture. This simple truth applies to ALL wireless adapters based on the TEXAS INSTRUMENTS ACX100/111 aka TNETW1450 chipsets, regardless of brand, and also applies to ALL Windows 64-bit operating system users.

The careful examiner will already notice this bitter truth on the adapter label shown on the Netgear support site. On the label of WG311v2, you will find 32-bit PCI. They mean it! By contrast, WG311v3 uses a Ralink chipset, for which 64-bit drivers are available.

Ubuntu 9.04 supports WG311v2 cards on the AMD 64-bit architecture, using the drivers that the Acx100 sourceforge project provides. This project develops Linux drivers for the acx100/111 chipset without help from manufacturers. In my situation, this meant that the card was immediately recognized after boot and the driver was loaded. I could configure the default wlan0 connection with a WPA key in NetworkManager (0.7.0.100). The spinning wheel in place of the network icon on the menu bar indicated repeated attempts to associate with the router. However, the connection was never successfully established.

I reckoned that perhaps NetworkManager did not set up the WPA password properly and delved into the use of WPA_supplicant for setting up a connection without using NetworkManager. This ubuntu geek tutorial was instructive. Still I could not associate the card with the router.

I decided that perhaps the driver module provided with the ubuntu distribution did not support WPA. I began to search for alternatives. Since Netgear claimed on their site that WPA was supported by their latest driver software (version 2.0.0.7), perhaps there was a way to use their driver.

I happened upon Ndiswrapper. This application wraps windows wireless adapter drivers into a Linux module. Because I could use a wired internet connection temporarily, I was able to install version 1.9 with ubuntu's Synaptic Package Manager. I found good instructions how to proceed on this ubuntu forum here. Most importantly, in order to load the new ndiswrapped acx module successfully, you need to blacklist the old module provided by ubuntu in /etc/modprobe.d/blacklist.conf. The name of the module to be blacklisted is "acx".

Ndiswrapper recognized the card correctly and installed the Netgear driver without complaint.  However, the command sudo modprobe ndiswrapper failed.

Why?

Because the Netgear driver was not compiled for a 64-bit architecture.

Remember the label on the card says "32-bit"! The constraint does not stem from the hardware, but from the unavailability of a compatible driver. I checked with all other adapter manufactures using this chipset. No luck!

So unless the next version of ubuntu's acx driver will support WPA, consider buying a new adapter card, making sure that the manufacturer provides drivers for a 64-bit architecture. Since most adapters are available in several versions, make sure to pick the correct one. Remember the difference between Netgear's WG311v2 and WG311v3, I noted above? You may have to check the label on the pci card.  Once you obtained an adapter with a 64-bit driver, you may use ndiswrapper, if ubuntu does not support the options you want out of the box.

If I am not mistaken, 64-bit Microsoft Windows users (be it XP_64, vista or windows 7) will run into this incompatibility-of-driver problem as well.

Addendum
  • The Sabrent PCI-G802 adapter works on Ubuntu 9.10 out of the box. Mine is based on the Ralink RT2561 chipset. If needed, the latest Windows 64-bit drivers are available for download on Ralink's software support site (01/14/10):

Thursday, July 9, 2009

National Security & Intellectual Property II

I have written about the recent purported computer software code theft at Goldman Sachs Group Inc in my post dated Jul. 6, 2009. Developments in the past 72 hours support the idea that Sergey Aleynikov intended to use the computer files he allegedly stole from his former employer in his new job.

He uploaded compressed program code files for an automated low latency stock trading software platform he helped develop at Goldman Sachs onto a server overseas. The number of files was so large that the compressed RAR file archive supposedly topped at 32 MB in size. Assuming text files and 23% compression, Sergey copied roughly a whopping 140 MB of code, that is almost three times the size needed to install a small operating system like Minix. Compiled, the code could produce binaries for a 300 MB application, approximately a third of Microsoft's Office suite.

Today, Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Christian Plumb report in their post on Reuters that the three founding members of the startup Teza Technologies LLC, that had wooed Sergey from Goldman Sachs for three times the salary, were sued by their own old employer, Citadel Investment Group, for violation of noncompete clauses. Citadel of Chicago manages hedge funds. The three worked in the quantitative trading branch of Citadel using automated high frequency methods which yielded extraordinary returns last year.



In all likelihood, the foursome planned to use the fruits of their labor at their respective former employers for the development of an own low latency quantitative trading platform. Could they have manipulated the market? Did their plan threaten national security?

Related Posts


Addenda
  • According to Laurence Fletcher's post on Reuters this afternoon,  Sergey's transferred files were accessible on the server abroad until last Monday. Sergey allegedly transferred them in the days before he left Goldman Sachs at the beginning of June. Hence, there was potential access to the data for about a month (07/10/09).
  • The owner of the service that hosted Sergey's upload recounts his experience in the past week here. Note that this company's home is in the U.K., whereas its servers are located in Bavaria (07/13/09).
  • Rob Iati summarized the fundamental implications of low latency high frequency trading (HFT) in his post on advancedtrading.com dated Jul. 10, 2009 (07/17/09).
  • Today, Jonathan Spicer reports in his post on Reuters about the role of flash programs in high frequency trading, like Direct Edge's Enhanced Liquidity Provider (ELP). Direct Edge flashes stock orders to select costumers for milliseconds, giving them a peak preview of the order flow. In combination with high frequency trading platforms that access dark pools matching orders anonymously, the ELPs may create a two-tired trading system, disadvantaging traders who cannot execute such fast trades. Direct Edge is owned by a consortium consisting of Citadel Investment Group, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Knight Capital Group, and International Securities Exchange LLC (07/27/09)
  • According to Grant McCool's post on Reuters today, the case USA versus Aleynikov (09-mj-01553, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York) may find a quiet, anticlimactic ending. In any case, Sergey's alleged theft brought the potential dangers of HFT to the attention of the media and the public (08/03/09).
  • According to Alex Berenson's post on The New York Times yesterday, the size of Goldman Sachs'  HFT program is 1,224 MB. Sergey transferred no more than a quarter of that (08/24/09).
  • Today, Sergey Aleynikov appeared in federal court for the first time and pleaded "not guilty" to all charges of code theft from Goldman Sachs.  The trial is scheduled to begin Nov. 29, 2010. The case is now assigned as "USA versus Aleynikov, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 10-00096" (02/17/10).
  • According to Chad Bray's report with the title "Ex-Goldman Programmer Found Guilty in Code Theft" published online in The Wall Street Journal today, a jury found Sergey Aleynikov guilty of theft of trade secrets and transportation of stolen property. Read Ted Thomas' insightful comment on high frequency trading added to this report (12/10/10).
  • According to Grant McCool's post with the title "Ex-Goldman programmer gets 8 years for code theft" published online on Reuters yesterday, Sergey was sentenced to eight years in prison. I presume he will appeal the sentence (03/19/11).

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

National Security & Intellectual Property

I am rarely willing to accept conspiracy theories, except maybe the assassination of President Kennedy only because it is highly improbable that a man like Lee Harvey Oswald with the rifle he used could hit a person in a moving car from such distance. Therefore, I do believe in Lee Harvey Oswald's claim that he was "just a patsy" and reckon that Jim Garrison was onto something real after reading his book entitled "On the Trail of the Assassins: My Investigation and Prosecution of the Murder of President Kennedy."Unfortunately, his trails ran cold. We may never find out the truth.

Two days ago another story broke with a whiff of conspiracy. Compared to President Kennedy's assassination, the event seems minor, but appears to fascinate many in the business of stock trades. The incidence was first reported by Tyler Durden in his post on Zero Hedge and Mathew Goldstein in a post on Reuters.

Sergey Aleynikov worked as a programmer in a supervisory function for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on an application that allows the firm to execute stock trades within milliseconds. The application is known as low latency or high frequency trading (HFT) platform. About a month ago, he started a new post with a start up company for three-times his salary at Goldman Sachs. Before he left Goldman Sachs, he transferred a large volume of files with program code from his computer at the firm to a server in Germany. He encrypted the data and attempted to obscure the transfer.

Weeks later IT security at the firm found out about Sergey's actions and reported the purported "theft" to the FBI. Sergey was arrested last Friday and was freed on $750,000.- bail yesterday, according to Martha Graybow's report on Reuters today. Furthermore, Brent McCool reports on Reuters that U.S. prosecutor Joseph Facciponte told the court in Saturday's hearing of Aleynikov's case that the program in the hands of competitors could cost Goldman Sachs millions. The firm's bearing appears to lend extraordinary importance to what could be just a blatant case of a programmer sloppiness, leaving ample room for speculation about the company secrets that may be contained in the "stolen" files. Conspiracy theories begin to blossom.

Sergey claims in his defense that he intended to copy only opensource files free for anyone's use, but may have included proprietory files inadvertently. He routinely downloaded such files to work on them at home. He did not believe that his actions breached his contract. 

Goldman Sachs is a leader in the business of computed millisecond stock trades, reaping great profits from the transactions. The business is highly controversial because of its considerable impact on the market and its potential of market manipulation. When huge volumes of stock are moved in such short time, fortunes are made and lost before anyone without such fast access can respond. The market changes faster than the trader on the floor can pick up his phone. Critics loath Goldman Sachs for their advantage and surmise that the firm is manipulating the entire national economy in its favor with its fast trades. Hence, some hope that this incident may uncover information that precipitates Goldman Sach's demise. Others elevate Sergey's actions to a case of industrial espionage that may endanger national security, since he transferred sensitive information abroad. Hence, Sergey's purported crime quickly garnered intense media attention in recent days.

I see two possible explanations for Sergey's actions:
  1. either Sergey truly did not understand what he was doing when he transferred the data, 
  2. or he knew exactly what he was doing, but acted that way in order to be able to claim that he did not know what he was doing,once the data transfer was discovered.
Finding out whether he shared the data with third parties and with whom may provide an answer. The download history should be retrievable from the server in Germany he uploaded the files to. Moreover, anyone who was going to use the files needed Sergey's encryption key.

Furthermore, I reckon that even if third parties got hold of the files, the data would be of limited use to them. Direct implementation is impossible, since the program is dependent on file libraries stored in company-localized systems and needs access to company-specific data bases. In addition, you would have to be situated physically close to the New York Stock Exchange in order to achieve the necessary velocity in data transfer.

Data is transferred across the internet via nodes. The fewer nodes the data has to travel, the faster the transfer. Physical distance adds nodes. Even if a firm in Europe could fully implement Goldman Sachs' program, they would not be able to beat the firm's trades because of the difference in the number of nodes.

On the other hand, if you were installed on Wall Street, close emulation of Goldman Sachs' trading program would be discovered swiftly, and the perpetrator would have to face costly litigation over patent infringements.

Perhaps the third party could examine the strategies and methods used in the programs in an attempt to develop superior ones. I was told that this was an undertaking bound to fail because of the sheer endless lines of code that have to be studied closely and the enormous complexity of such program. Perhaps, savants could run tests on the program to discover vulnerabilities that own programs could exploit to edge out the Goldman Sachs trades. Perhaps, they could uncover the secrets of the decision making engine. I assume you need considerable expertise in the field of fast trade programs in order to accomplish these goals.

The above limitations leave one other possibility that has been suggested as the most likely scenario. Sergey copied the code files for the programs in whose development he was most intimately involved to use them as reference in future work on his new job. 

Hence, Sergey's "crime" may consist of nothing more than a misinterpretation of clauses in his job contract and does not merit the media attention it attracted. I find it astounding that a firm like Goldman Sachs was not taking more precautions against such data misuse by employees, particularly when the employees are known to move on to a potential competitor. You only have to monitor the users' shell history and the syslog files. After all, the possibility remains that company secrets vital to the firm's mode of operation are included in the files Sergey knowingly or inadvertently transferred.

We shall find out more. Stay tuned.

Related Posts

Addenda
  • On a funny note, according to Nick Carey's post on Reuter's yesterday a business school professor concluded that Sergey's brain told him to transfer the files. Surprised (07/09/09)?
  • Introducing his latest thriller novel on reckless computer-assisted global financial crime, Robert Harris gave a remarkable interview to Steve Inskeep for National Public Radio's Morning Edition today. The author concludes the interview with the title "'The Fear Index': A Hedge Fund Frankenstein" in reference to the power of networked computers executing high-speed financial transactions that “they are not alive in any recognizable sense, and yet in a strange way, (they are) determining our existence, and (they are) also slightly outside human control. I mean, one cannot see any world leader who has got a grip on the financial markets these days. They're too big, too fast. I think that's quite scary (02/06/2012).”
Acknowledgment
I am grateful for the insights of the coding experts posting comments on Zero Hedge. They helped me better understand the issues involved.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Negative Equity, Recovery & Mobility

Les Christie reported in his post for CNNMoney dated May 6, 2009, that according to a market analysis published on Zillow.com about 22 percent of American homes were "underwater" at the end of March. That is, in today's market the value of these homes is less than the outstanding balance on their mortgages. Home owners may wonder, how long recovery may take. The calculator below provides an estimate, regardless of the price of the home. The default entries are explained in the next paragraph. You may replace them with your own data:

Interests:
%
Appreciation:
%
Depreciation:
%
years.
 © You may donate for further development through PayPalhere.

Suppose we bought a home with a down payment of 20 percent and a 30-year mortgage at 5.92% APR two years ago. According to a report on RealEstateabc.com, the annual rate of appreciation for American homes has been on average 6.34 % over the past 40 years. This value seems high. Local rates may be lower. According to my own observations over the past 10 years, and these were years of unprecedented economic growth where I live, property values have appreciated at 5.7% annually. The rate may be substantially less in current circumstances.

Be it as it may, let us take the optimistic view and enter 6.34% as annual appreciation rate in the calculator as default. If we lived in an area of the country hardest hit by the recent slump in the real estate market, our new home may have lost half of its value since we bought it. That is, its value depreciated 50%. According to the result calculated above, we need to keep this home for 21 years to recoup our loss. As a consequence, mobility loses its luster. Many home owners may choose to stay put.

Addenda
  • According to The Economist's daily chart post dated Aug. 21, 2009, Deutsche Bank's securitization team estimates that roughly every second American home with a mortgage will be underwater in 2011 (08/29/09).
  • Lisa Lambert reports in her post on Reuters dated Sep. 17, 2009, that another wave of troubled mortgages is about to ensue, potentially unleashing more foreclosures. That is, adjustable rate mortgages with payment options are beginning to reset in large numbers burdening home owners with ever higher cost. In Arizona alone, 128,000 payment option ARMs will adjust to higher rates within the next 12 months. In the meantime, the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent nationwide according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (09/19/09).
  • According to Les Christie's report entitled "Nearly 25% of all mortgages are underwater" on CNNMoney yesterday, First American CoreLogic estimated that home values are still dropping under the value of their mortage. The company found that in the last quarter of 2009 mortgages on homes underwater increased by one percent to 10.7 million (02/24/10).




  • M.P. McQueen's post with the title "The New Rules of Remodeling" for the Wall Street Journal dated Apr. 24, 2010, confirms my prediction on rising immobility. Remodeling seems a good idea. Let us benefit from tax credits and put some energy efficient insulation in our home. Let us upgrade kitchen appliances and make our home a nicer place to live, because we may stay in it for a long time (04/28/10).
  • While modifying my calculator after one reader's cogent comment, I noticed that in the parlance of the Goldman Sachs bankers who testified before Congress two days ago our home, looked at as an investment, definitely qualifies as a very long sale. The banks, however, sold our mortgage short. Our mortgage was sold to Citigroup two years after we closed on the home. Since we could keep up with our payments, it probably ended up buried in tranche A of one of those sh***y CDO's alluded to in the hearing (04/29/10).
  • According to Conor Dougherty's report entitled "More Americans Moved in '09, but Not Far" in today's Wall Street Journal, the Brookings Institution estimates a state-to-state mover rate of 1.6 percent for 2008 and 2009, constituting the steepest decline in interstate migration since the Great Depression (05/10/10).
  • You may wish to listen to some homeowners whose diminished home value considerably affected their mobility in Yuki Noguchi's report on National Public Radio's Morning Edition today entitled "Devalued Homes Anchor Prospective Job Seekers" (08/26/10).
Related Posts

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Windows 7, Qemu & the Internet

I decided to participate in Microsoft's testing program for Windows 7 earlier this year. I downloaded the 32- and the 64-bit installation package iso-images from Microsoft's website. I envisioned to test the next generation Windows operating system as guest in a qemu emulator (version 0.9.1) using Ubuntu's Hardy Heron 8.04 as the host operating system. Hardy Heron is installed on a MSI K8T Master 2FAR motherboard with two AMD Opteron 242 CPUs and 4Gb of RAM. Binary versions of qemu compiled as applications for for Apple's OS X are available from Q. The installation of Windows 7 should not be different. Below I describe what needed to be done to render a successful installation.

KQEMU INSTALL
To install kqemu on the host, I essentially followed instructions provided on the ubuntu community documentation site here and on alien.slackbook.org here. Microsoft recommends to provide at least 16 Gb for Windows 7. I decided to create a raw image of 20 Gb and reserve 1024 Mb for RAM, that is the maximum qemu allows, in the /home directory for the guest, running the following command in the terminal:
  • qemu-img create -f raw windows7.img 20G

WINDOWS 7 INSTALL
I used the following command to install Windows 7 on the raw image:
  • qemu-system-x86_64 -localtime -net nic,model=ne2k_pci,vlan=0  -net user -m1024 -cdrom './windows7.iso' -boot d windows7.img
I repeatedly attempted to use the 64-bit version of Windows 7 without success. Each time, the installation process halted with a blue screen below.


By contrast, I was successful with the 32-bit version. The install went smoothly. I could login and test the applications. However, I could not connect to the internet. The internet icon in the bottom panel was crossed out. The problem solver suggested that the proper driver was not found. I was asked to provide one. The reader is advised to review the experience I recount below to the end.

INTERNET
I examined numerous threads on drivers for windows and qemu over several weeks. By default, Qemu provides an ethernet interface that uses the Realtek RTL8029 driver. This is a legacy driver that Realtek no longer supports. I found an installable driver v5.08 here.

Installing, the RTL8029 driver resulted in limited connectivity with no internet access. Advice on a windows help forum suggested that this problem may be solved with disabling the firewall. It did not work.

On my continued quest for solutions, I found the following suggestions:
  • Under Properties for the Driver found in the Network and Sharing Center, click Local Area Connection, uncheck the Internet Protocol Version 6 (TCP/IPv6) option.
  • Click Start in the bottom panel,
  • type regedit in the Search programs and files box, and click on regedit in the list.
  • If you are prompted for an administrator password or for confirmation, type your password, or click Continue.
     
  • Locate and click the following registry subkey: HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\CurrentControlSet\Services\Tcpip4\Parameters\Interfaces\{GUID}. In this registry path, click the {GUID} subkey that corresponds to the enabled ethernet interface. 
  • On the Edit menu, point to New, and then click DWORD (32-bit) Value.
  • In the New Value #1 box, type DhcpConnEnableBcastFlagToggle, and then press ENTER.
  • Right-click DhcpConnEnableBcastFlagToggle, and then click Modify.
  • In the Value data box, type 1, and then click OK.
I added one more step:
  • Locate and click the following registry subkey:
    HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\CurrentControlSet\Services\Tcpip6\Parameters\Interfaces\{GUID}
  • On the Edit menu, click on New, and then on DWORD (32-bit) Value
  • In the New Value #1 box, type DhcpConnForceBroadcastFlag, and then press ENTER.
  • The Value data box remains set to: 0.
  • Close Registry Editor.
Note a DhcpConnForceBroadcastFlag value of 0 disables this registry entry. You can use this registry entry to prevent Windows from using the DHCP BROADCAST flag. After you set this registry entry, Windows never uses the DHCP BROADCAST flag.

Taking these steps did not render the ethernet connection with the RTL8029 driver functional either. Eventually, I disabled DHCP and entered the static IP addresses proposed on ubuntu's community documentation site manually:
  • qemu-emulated Windows 7 I.P. address: 10.0.2.15
  • Gateway address: 10.0.2.2
  • SubMask address: 255.255.255.0
  • DNS Server address: 10.0.2.3
Disabling the DHCP server did not help either. At that point, I concluded that connecting to the internet was not going to work with the legacy driver. Instead, I found here that recent versions of qemu may support the rtl8139 driver, though warning was given that this option would not provide any connectivity. Despite, restarting qemu with 
  • qemu-system-x86_64 -localtime -net nic,model=rtl8139 -net user -m1024 -cdrom './windows7.iso' -boot d windows7.img
produced a working connection to the internet, miraculously automatically. The system loaded the RTL8139C+ Fast Ethernet NIC driver from its own driver directory. The interface uses DHCP and found the correct IP addresses. I did not have to edit anything manually. The pre-installed driver can be replaced with the most recent driver from Realtek for Vista 64 and Vista bundled in the newest auto installation program (Submission ID: 1310628).

Further experimentation showed that the RTL8029 driver can be used as well. Once specified on the Qemu command line with the "-net nic,model=ne2k_pci" option, Windows 7 will load the RTL8029 driver, if it has been previously installed in the system's driver directory and configure an ethernet connection. The same will happen, when you start qemu with the default option "-net nic".

A crucial prerequisite for Windows 7 autoconfiguration to work successfully is that the RTL8029 driver must have been installed beforehand, because the driver is not included in Windows 7. By contrast, if RTL8139 is specified with the qemu command, the system loads the RTL8139C+ Fast Ethernet NIC driver pre-installed in Windows 7.


IE 8
Finally, I was ready to install the latest updates from Microsoft and test applications. I remain unimpressed with the Internet Explorer (IE) 8. This browser denies access to sites like this blog which are perfectly accessible with older versions of IE, Google Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Safari, and Seamonkey. IE 8 help does not suggest any precise actions to remedy the problem. Hence,
I opted for Google Chrome instead.

SHARED FOLDER
To access a shared folder on the host system, kqemu must be started with the following command in the terminal:
  • qemu-system-x86_64 -localtime -net nic -net user -m1024 -boot c windows7.img -smb /home/user/qemu_share
In order to access the qemu_share folder from Windows 7, the folder's permissions must be set for sharing on the host. In Windows 7, the folder can then be mounted following the sequence below:
  • Click Start in the bottom panel, choose Computer,
  • right-click Network and choose Map Network Drive...,
  • enter \\10.0.2.2\qemu_share on the folder choice line,
  • choose Reconnect at logon,
  • and click Finish.
SOUND
Qemu provides several options for sound hardware, the only option Windows 7 recognized on my setup was:
  • -soundhw es1370
Ensoniq's ES 1370 technology dates back at least ten years. I found an acceptable driver on the Ensoniq support site. The driver installer location can be accessed, using the following path:
E-MU Legacy Hardware support
Audio PCI
PC
Windows 3.1 Driver Version 3.30.06.

Alternatively, you may wish to download the driver installer directly here.

The driver's setup wizard refused to fully install the software. Intriguingly, the following Windows 7 update detected and upgraded the ES 1370 driver, I needed to set the variable QEMU_AUDIO_DRV in my environment. Which drivers are supported depends on your host operating system. The options can be reviewed with qemu -audio-help. I chose alsa. Therefore, the launch of the emulator must be preceded with the comands :
  • export QEMU_AUDIO_DRV=alsa
  • export QEMU_ALSA_DAC=dmix
  • export QEMU_ALSA_ADC=null
Though I turned up full volume in all controls, the speaker sound remained exceedingly attenuated. The problem does not reside with the host. My Windows 2000 XP system emulated with the same qemu version produces great sound. This shortcoming still remains unresolved.

RUNNING WINDOWS 7
At this point, the complete command line to boot Windows 7 on kqemu includes the following options:
  • qemu-system-x86_64 -localtime -net nic -net user -m1024 -boot c windows7.img -smb /home/user/qemu_share -soundhw es1370
I recommend to save this command line in an executable shell script. The blue screen still erratically pops up during boot. The system will boot up after a couple of tries.

Addenda
  • I applied the same procedure to successfully install the release candidate that became available for download on May 5, 2009. Reboot does not always work during installation. You may have to go through a number of lengthy repair routines that Windows suggests and be patient. Eventually, it will work (05/10/09).
  • I recently upgraded Ubuntu to Karmic Koala (9.10). This upgrade comprises a new version of qemu (0.11.0), changing the available options. With the new version, I can run the emulator with two central processing units, that is -smp 2. More types of emulated ethernet cards are available. As a consequence of the update, windows 7 uninstalled the rtl8139 ethernet driver after the next boot. I had to re-install the system-provided drivers with the Device Manager (Control Panel & System and Security & System). For sound, the es1370 option is still listed following the command qemu -soundhw ?. However starting qemu with this option now fails. I am investigating (11/28/09).
  • The sound problem is unrelated to qemu. After I removed the environmental variables for alsa from the start-up script, windows 7 recognized the virtual ensoniq sound card and installed the es 1370 driver. The loudspeaker icon on the bottom menu bar of windows 7 turned unstruck, indicating active sound. However, no sound is to be heard yet. The environmental sound variables many need to be set differently in Karmic, possibly because Karmic appears to use pulse audio instead of alsa by default. I am investigating further (12/22/09).
  • If pulse audio is used for sound, the above environmental sound variables must be replaced with: QEMU_AUDIO_DRV=pa (04/15/10).
  • The download link on www.softwarepatch.com for the RTL8029 driver provided above does not seem to work at times. I found an alternative at www.techspot.com here (08/03/10).
  • Because of recently exploited vulnerabilities, the use of the RTL8029 driver is highly discouraged. You may wish to read more here: The Stuxnet Worm, Windows & The Internet (09/29/10).
  • For those who are not obligated to use qemu as emulator, I am pleased to share that I have had great success with installing and running Microsoft Corporation's Windows 8 Consumer Preview (64 bit) on VirtualBox 4.1.10. VirtualBox is emulation freeware maintained by Oracle (formerly Sun Microsystems). The installation proceeded without impediments. I followed the suggestions for the best suited settings, and made sure that no warnings remained, before I started the installation. Red triangles alert to sub-optimally selected parameters in the settings pulldown menu. The most important choice may be to dedicate no more than half of the RAM installed in your computer to emulated base memory, even if the Windows operating system can be used with more. Since I installed the system on an old Apple MacBook (2.26 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo; OS X Snow Leopard, version 10.6.8) with only 2 GB DDR3, I limited the base memory to 1 GB. In addition, I limited the emulator video memory to 128 MB. I dedicated 20 GB to static disk storage, choosing the vmdk-format. With these settings the emulated operating system performs astonishingly well. Internet access is flawless. The virtual machine is accessible on our home network. For installation, I used the downloaded iso-image of Windows 8. Therefore, I had to make sure that the CD/DVD drive option pointed to the image for the initial boot. The image can be selected under the disk icon on the bottom bar of the virtual box or from the pulldown settings menu. Good luck (03/28/2012)!
Screenshot of VirtualBox running Windows 8 on virtual machine (Read more here).



Related Posts

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Reduced Calorie Diet & Body Mass Index

Reduced-calorie diets seem to help diminish body weight. Sacks and others (2009) report in the New England Journal of Medicine (360:859-873) that eating reduced-calorie meals with differing allotments of carbohydrates, fats, and proteins helped 645 overweight adult men and women, who stringently dieted for two years, lose on average 4 kg (roughly 9 pounds). The findings caught the attention of the national media. Tara Parker-Pope filed a report on them in her column Well for The New York Times already yesterday evening. CNN's Madison Park posted a detailed report about the study today.

The participants of the study conducted at Harvard University and Louisiana State University had body mass indexes between 25 to 40. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated dividing the weight in kilograms by the square of the height in meters (see attached converter). Diets low and high in fat and protein were personalized to provide 750 kcal less per day than the baseline expenditure determined for each person.

Statistical analysis showed that all diets tested diminished body weight noticeably, though not statistically significantly. The various types of diet did not differ significantly in the diminution of body weight. However, encouragement with counseling reinforced weight loss. More persistent encouragement, in particular the addition of physical activity regimens, could have enhanced the observed small differences in effect.

Using the converter below, you may convert your body weight [pounds] and body height [inches] into metric dimensions according to the Système International by entering the appropriate values in the blue boxes and clicking on the green boxes. If you use metric measures, just enter your data in the green boxes. Subsequently, clicking on the body mass index button calculates this value.

[in] : [cm]:
[lbs]: [kg] :
BMI_:

© You may donate for further development through PayPalhere. The converter is available for MySpace users under the App name YourBMItoday.



Addenda
  • Keith Devlin discusses ten reasons why BMI may constitute an unrealistic indicator of obesity in an segment broadcast on yesterday's Weekend Edition of National Public Radio (05/07/09).
  • According to Will Dunam's post on Reuters dated May 3, 2009, reduced-calorie diets promote longevity possibly through the expression of pha-4 related genes, the products of which are  involved in the balancing of blood sugar (07/14/09).
  • Nicholas Wade reports in his post for The New York Times, dated Jul. 9, 2008, on results of a longitudinal research study with rhesus monkeys (Coleman and others, 2009), suggesting that reduced-calorie dieting extends average lifespan  (07/16/09).
  • Alex Witchel's article for The New York Times posted Oct. 6, 2009, describes the preliminary results of the first scientifically controlled studies using restricted diets on participants of normal weight. The imposed dietary regimens may be difficult to adhere to, once we are left to our own whim. The studies have not advanced to that point yet. Perhaps, the most insightful result to date is the notion that keeping track of our food intake in a conscientious effort helps (10/09/09).
  • The discussion below gave me pause. It would be great, if this example of weight control were the result of pure self discipline (10/16/09):
  • On Mar. 4, 2010, Maggie Fox posted a report with the title "Your best diet? It might be in your genes" on a recent study uncovering variations in the genes ADRB2, FABP2, and PPARG that may play a crucial role in the efficacy of diet types. The products of these genes are proteins that influence the secretion of insulin from the pancreas (ADRB2), facilitate fatty acid metabolism, (FABP2), and regulate fatty acid storage and glucose metabolism (PPARG). The study was presented at the American Heart Association's Joint Conference - 50th Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology and Prevention - and - Nutrition, Physical Activity and Metabolism - 2010, held in San Francisco last week (Dopler Nelson and others, 2010). The results of the study are based on the examination of 140 overweight women. Four diets were randomly assigned to the participants: Atkins (low in carbohydrates), LEARN (extremely low in fat), Ornish (low in fat), and Zone (balanced). Personal genetic profiles were analyzed in roughly 100 participants, using an assay available from Interleukin Genetics Inc. Over one year, participants with the diet matching their genetic profile lost twice the body weight (5.3 precent) than the participants on mismatched diets (2.3 percent). Note that people on restricted calorie diets lose about 10 percent in the same time span (03/07/10).
  • Our body mass index is supposed to range between 18.5 and 24.9 to keep us healthy. Kathrine Rosman provides some interesting facts for the benefits of a little more weight in her Wall Street Journal post with the title "A Case for Those Extra 10 Pounds" two days ago. A few more pounds seem okay, as long as they are not visceral. That's my snag (04/29/10)!
  • According to Gautam Naik's post entitled "Gene Curtails Alzheimer's in Mice" on The Wall Street Journal today, Guarente and others (2010) provide evidence that sirtuin 1, the product of the gene SIRT1, the expression of which is induced by reduced-calorie diets, helps prevent the formation of amyloid plaques and memory loss in a mouse model for inheritable Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD mice that had additional SIRT1 inserted into their genome showed the positive results, wheras AD mice that had SIRT1 knocked out off their genome deteriorated extraordinarily fast (07/22/10).
  • Rick Wilking provides as with a gallery of slides published online on Reuters yesterday with the title "Big U.S." documenting obesity in America. We may wish to consult the BMI table on slide #33. As long as our BMI is in the white part of the table, we are fine (10/09/10).
  • Bruce Grierson informs us in his astounding essay with the title "The Incredibly Flying Nonagenarian" published online in The New York Times today about the achievements of athletes at advanced age, the physiological and genetic basis underlying such incredible performance, and the beneficial effects of physical fitness. Persistent physical exercise routines may slow aging, because the more efficient use of calories may stem the degradation of genes involved in tissue regeneration, enhancing and preserving our physical potential. Watch Olga Kotelko at age 91 (11/25/10):
  • According to this Reuters chart with the title "Obesity" published online Dec. 9, 2010, BMI statistics suggest that Italians and French are less overweight than U.S. Americans and Germans. Must be the food (12/16/10)!
  • Remaining focused on a regimen of diet and exercise over the long haul is difficult for most. Applications like the SlimKicker may provide helpful support in a playful way (04/20/12).
  • Excess body weight has reached national proportions. According to Linda Wertheimer's interview with Dr. Ian Roberts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine with the title "Study: Fat People Burden Earth's Resources" aired on National Public Radio's Morning Edition today, the U.S. is adding the equivalent of more than one billion people in overweight to the Earth's population (06/20/2012).
  • According to the latest results of a long-term study with rhesus monkeys conducted by the US National Institute of Aging (NIA) intramural program (Mattison and others, 2012), a reduced calorie diet did not extend life. The difference in outcome compared with the study of Colman and others (2009) may lie in study design. The control monkeys in that study were allowed to indulge in as much food as they could eat, whereas the food supply for the control monkeys in the NIA study was limited (09/29/2012). 
References